Coyotes Predators Game 4 Pick

10

A very solid day on the ice yesterday!

We nailed our 3 STAR pick on the Kings at a very generous -114 price, and also hit the OVER again between Philadelphia and New Jersey at a nice +130 price.

+4.30 units on the day, and what a roll we’ve been on over the past couple months.

Tonight there is one NHL game on the board between the Coyotes and the Predators. We have our 5 UNIT series play on the Predators pending so I am not going to make a play on this game tonight. We can simply sit back and cheer for the Predators to tie the series back up at 2-2. If you haven’t yet got your Nashville series play in today would be a good chance at +135.

 Enjoy tonight’s game.  Tomorrow I should be coming back with an NHL pick depending on the lines.  If you are looking to bet on tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby check out www.BetonKentuckyDerby.org for a $100 Bonus.
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10 Comments

  1. Why do you always refuse to make a play just because you have a series play, especially after you hit a rare winner? Its just a lame excuse and I have been following your record these past few months and its not very impressive! You shouldn’t charge for your picks as its clear you still have a lot to learn.

  2. Gaz89 – First off you let me know where the value lies in tonight’s game for us who have 5 units on the Preds to win the series. Are we going to add to that and lay another -160 on the Preds at home tonight? No, that makes no sense. Are we going to go against our own series play and play the Coyotes at +145? No thanks, the Preds have been great at home and I will let it ride. I don’t like the total either.

    You aren’t a client so it seems you really don’t know what you’re talking about. I am +35 units over the past few months with all plays taken into consideration.

    Cheers

  3. Dustin Mayfield on

    Gaz89, he’s actually been doing a great job over the past few months. I’m not a client yet either but hes been doing great. And just because there is a Game playing doesnt always mean you should bet. Be wise with what you bet.

  4. Firstly, your right I’m not a client which puts more importance to the way you conduct yourself….being rude and arrogrant isn’t going to get you anywhere.

    My point is you have an tendancy to make no plays on most of your series play, what does that tell us? As a professional capper you should at least increase your activity in actually capping the playoffs, I’m not here to break your balls just some sound advice best of luck with your picks.

    Cheers

  5. Duncan MacTavish on

    Gaz89/Kevin. (In my opinion)You’re actually both wrong and right on some of the more technical aspects of betting on the Nashville Series. One of the pitfalls of taking a SERIES BET is it doesn’t allow you to assess the game match-up. Kevin: You said: “Are we going to go against our own series play and play the Coyotes at +145?” Well, based on the recent team match-ups, it could have been perceived as excellent value on that game. But you felt you would be ‘betting against your series bet’. No, it was one game. And, infact, possible the last time you will see the Coyotes at +145 this series which mean it was an opportunity to hedge / put down a point and, if the lost, you still had profit on your series play. 5 points on a series is a huge chunk and an odds against to hedge on a team with momentum should have been considered. Gaz89: a punter doesn’t have to have a bet on every game anyways. Infact, if more punters simply watched sports to evaluate teams, they would be better gamblers since you are scouting and assessing. Kevin: It’s been a long season but making calls on 20-25% of the regular season games is far too much. The first four weeks, you lost 30 pts which means Nov till now, you gained 20 points (so it can’t be +35 in the “past few months” otherwise you would be green on the season). So, clearly, you need to look at your approach to gambling on NHL last season. At LSP (level stake profits) and ROI (return on investment (NET PROFIT divided by TOTAL RISK) support my view. again, it looks like it was all play-off money – perhaps a clue – LESS GAMES TO LOOK AT).

  6. Some great points there Duncan. It wasn’t the fact that I wouldn’t go against my series bet – in fact I already did with the St Louis pick in the first round taking San Jose as underdogs.

    Last night I just didn’t see the value in the Coyotes at +145. Like I mentioned the Predators are good at home, and I thought they would win by 1 or 2 goals again last night. I think they made a mistake letting Radulov and Kostitsyn sit again but that doesn’t matter.

    I was -45 units at my low this season. I am at about -10 … so I was +35 over the past few months… but I guess past few months is about 4 1/2 months.

  7. Duncan MacTavish on

    I didn’t think you hit -45. So what did you feel you did different? My point is not so much value at that point (+145) but that at price and a 2-1 lead with 5 points of your account at stake, it is sometimes worth just hedging less than a point to make back a point. At 2-2, you can let it ride. At 3-1, right now it is looking like a -5 hit to the wallet that, this morning, could have been -4. 5 point lock in to a series is a lot. Even 2 points and the plan to find two to three winning bets in a series can be a better play.

  8. Great point Duncan, Thats the point I was making. I took PHO ML because it had way more value Kevin is acually missing out and your totally right about hedging.

    Not to be rude but you sound like a guy who knows what hes doing, do you cap NHL? I wouldn’t mind following your choices.