February 22nd, 2013

1

We have had some very tough luck with our GOW plays this year.  Every big play I’ve released that has been a loss has been a 1 goal loss, and that continues last night as the Montreal Canadiens blow a 3-1 lead and eventually lose 4-3 in overtime to the Islanders.  The Canadiens outplayed the Islanders for a lot of the game but couldn’t put them away.  Those GOW plays will start going our way soon enough and we can forget about those tough beats.  Other then that the Flyers gave up three quick goals and lost our 2 unit play 5-2 despite outshooting the Panthers 34-26.

To look at it from a different view we are only down a little over 2 units the past two days since I’ve returned.  A good weekend here will make up for it.  Three games on the board and I’ve got one play going…

2 UNIT = San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks – BLACKHAWKS TO WIN (-140)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.42 units)

The Sharks enter this big Western Conference match up 8-4-3 on the season.  Although that records looks OK they are just 3-3-1 on the road and have lost 7 of their last 8 games.  The Sharks got off to a hot start, but dropped 7 straight games (scoring only 8 goals over that span) before winning their last time out in St Louis.  The Blackhawks are no doubt the hottest team in the NHL with no regulation loss to date and a 13-0-3 record.  They are 5-0-1 on home ice and enter tonight’s game winners of 3 straight and 7 of 8.  During that span includes a 4-1 home victory against the Sharks and a 5-3 victory in San Jose.  Tonight we should have a good goalie match up with Antti Niemi probable who is 7-2-3 with a 1.86 GAA and .933 SV% vs Ray Emery (confirmed) who is a perfect 6-0 with a 2.27 GAA and .925 SV%.  The Sharks are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or better, and 1-9 in their last 10 vs Central division opponents.  Take note that the Blackhawks have beaten the Sharks 4 of their last 5 meetings overall and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home meetings vs San Jose.  The Sharks have really struggled offensively lately, while the Blackhawks have scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 games and have recorded 37+ shots in their last 3 games (and 30+ shots in 6 of 7).  Chicago is finding ways to win and I like them to win another big game on home ice tonight.

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  1. Duncan MacTavish on

    Had the same play last night but in 60 minutes.

    A result last night but based on strike rate and returns, you need to consider at least betting 60 minutes if you are going to profit over the season.

    By betting money-line, a punter is saying they feel the Team A is not capable of beating Team B in 60 minutes.

    The first question a handicapper has to ask:
    – Is the team strong enough to win in regular time?

    Going through the game, if no, then chances are it is ‘no bet’ or time to consider the opposition.

    If yes, then the next question is if they can do it by -1.5.

    At that point, options and combination to maximize the play are there and you are finding value.

    This mindset maximizes the ‘potential’ over a season.

    By taking money-line, you are taking a huge percentage less for 5 minutes of hockey and then a coin toss (shoot out).

    For example, last night, by taking 60-minutes (regular time), it paid 70% more that money-line.

    65 minutes is JUST 8% more of time yet 60 minutes pays 60-70% more. Thus, the bookies make a lot of money off money-line in hockey.

    As well, if the average of your implied probability does not exceed your strike-rate, you will simply be recycling any wins you have. A starting point: A handicappers strike rate over 2 or 3 seasons of any sport would give you the MINIMUM ODDS they should consider before putting down a bet.

    GL