January 22nd 2013

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A good day yesterday with our Game of the Week (GOW) play on the Anaheim Ducks cashing.  The Ducks went up 3-0 early to the Flames and it all looked good, but the Flames came back to tie it at 3-3.  It wasn’t until the third period that the Ducks ended up going ahead for good and finished with a 5-4 victory.  Our early play on Boston -1.5 didn’t come through.  They had a ton of scoring chances they couldn’t capitalize on and they hit a lot of posts throughout the game, which resulted in a 2-1 shootout victory.

We move on to tonight’s picks, and I also have a change to how I am betting my plays for this NHL season…

IMPORTANT: I also want to give you a heads up on a change I’m making to how my bets will work. In the past I had been risking “to win” on each pick. So for example if the odds were -110 I would be risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units on a 2 unit play. From now on out I will be “flat betting”. This means for a 2 unit play with -110 odds I will be risking 2 units to win 1.82 units. If the play was +120 I would be risking 2 units to win 2.40 units. This means no matter if it is a favorite or underdog I will risking the same amount on each play. Tonight’s 4 unit play at -108 in the future will be risking 4.00 units to win 3.72 instead of 4.32 to win 4.00.

If you have any questions on that please email me, but below each pick I will continue to put the number of units risked.

2 UNIT = Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens – PANTHERS TO WIN (+136)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.72 units)

Florida is coming off a 4-0 loss last night in Ottawa against a pretty good Senators team and are now 1-1 on the year.  In last night’s game they couldn’t find the back of the net even though they had over 30 shots on Craig Anderson. The Panthers opened their season with a big 5-1 victory over the Hurricanes as just slight favorites at home, and now head to Montreal to take on the Canadiens.  Montreal has played just once so far, with that being a 2-1 loss in their home opener against the Maple Leafs.  Montreal didn’t look very good in that game and will need a better effort tonight if they want to get their first win of the season.  The Panthers will go with a fresh set of legs in net with Scott Clemmensen getting the start.  Clemmensen was a solid 14-6-6 last year with a 2.57 GAA and .913 SV%.  These two teams met 4 times last year with Florida winning all four meetings.  Both games in Montreal were one goal games, but Florida was on the right side of each.  That wasn’t rare for Montreal, who had just 16 wins at home going 16-15-10.  The Canadiens finished last in the Eastern Conference last season and are now without one of their better players in defenceman P.K. Subban.  Montreal is just 5-17 in their last 22 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and I don’t think they deserve to be as big of favorites as they are tonight.  I will take the Panthers at +136.

2 UNIT = Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – WILD TO WIN (-125)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units) <– note the change as with the old method it would have been 2.50 units to win 2.00 units

Nashville is coming off a shootout loss last night at home vs the St Louis Blues to drop them to 0-0-2 on the year.  They lost their home opener, also in shootout, against the Columbus Blue Jackets who were the leagues worst team last year.  It hasn’t been a good start for the Nashville Predators, and tonight they will head into Minnesota to take on the Wild who are 2-0 to start the year.  The Wild have played two home games and have beaten Colorado 4-2 and Dallas 1-0.  Tonight’s game is interesting as Ryan Suter signed a huge contract in the off-season with the Wild to leave the Predators team.  This past off season the Wild upgraded their roster with Parise and Suter, while the Predators lost a key piece to their playoff team from a year ago.  The Wild were 20-17-4 at home last year, while the Predators were 22-16-3 on the road.  Nashville has had Minnesota’s number recently going 6-1 in their last 7 meetings, but the Predators are just 5-12-2 in their last 19 meetings in Minnesota.  Last night was an emotional loss for the Predators against one of the Western Conference’s top teams and it will be tough for them to come into Minnesota and beat a hot Wild team.  I will take Minnesota tonight at -125.

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