Kings vs Devils Game 1 Pick

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Alright guys it is time to have a good Stanley Cup Finals, and win back some money here. The playoffs started off well and then went bad, but I’ve re-grouped and have started to focus on what will make us money. ¬†I’ve sent out a 5 STAR pick to clients on the series, but that won’t let me shy away from handicapping each game here in the finals. ¬†Tonight’s pick below.

New Jersey has gotten to the Stanley Cup Finals beating Florida in 7 games, Philadelphia in 5 games and the Rangers in 6 games. The Kings beat Vancouver in 5, St Louis in 4 games, and Phoenix in 5 games.

GAME #1 – Los Angeles Kings @ New Jersey Devils – DEVILS TO WIN (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 1.05 units to win 1.00 unit)

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6 Comments

  1. Duncan MacTavish on

    I don’t know what your 5* pick for the series was (though I should hope that it was the devils to win the series since you took them as a selection for game one), but I think you should look at the math and factors on going 5* on a series. i.e. If any first line players were to get injured, your investment is at risk.

    Also, if you bet on a team to win the series, how can you even consider betting against them during the series? Again, the math does not make sense. It also contradicts an assessment since you are saying that the team is the better squad. So saying “The Canadiens will win the series and are up 2-0 but tonight I’m taking the Bruins.”

    Math: you have a 5 point bet on a team. So, in your case, $400.00. Each losing bet during the series (i.e. last night) cuts into your return if you have backed the Devils to win the series (last night -$80.00).

    If you bet on the Kings to win the series, it would be really unusual to bet against them in the first game (you might as well say “I think the Kings aren’t going to win the first game so NO bet and will invest in them to win series when they are 1 down”).

    If you bet on a series, your only bets should be to hedge. Thus, betting game to game won’t create any sort of ROI (i.e., so far you have bet 6 points and your return is -1).

    I think some better understanding on sports and math is in order before you take a sport on for an entire season.

    Sorry to sound so critical but with your MLB betting going the same way (you have already almost bet on as many games (daily’s) as all of last season, I think that you need to be more selective and more controlled in your betting if you are ever going to see a return.

  2. My 5* series pick is on the Devils – could have saved you some time writing up that post.

    Not sure if you’re following the right MLB website. Last season I released 142 free plays and 27 5*’s. This year I have 65 and 6. And the “if you are ever going to see a return” comment doesn’t make sense either as I finished up 50 units last season and am up over 9 units already this season. Following the wrong site probably.

  3. Duncan MacTavish on

    http://www.mlbpredictions.org/

    Kevin, the approach you are using is not showing an effective return.

    The stats:
    (based on 7 months of baseball)

    Last year on daily’s:
    Average per month: 21
    This year: you are at an average of 32 picks
    You have INCREASED your number of daily’s by 50%

    Five star:
    Last year, you averaged 4 a month
    This year, you have averaged 3, a decrease of 25%

    Combined, you are making 50% more bets and are on course to place 250+ bets.

    YOUR QUOTE: “I finished up 50 units last season and am up over 9 units already this season”

    BUT your performance and pace is DOWN from last season.

    2011, you finished +50 points or an average of 7 pts a month

    This season, you are +9 points or 4.5 pts per month average.

    Your ROI is almost half:
    Last season, 18% ($5,000 divided by around $28,000 wagered)
    This season, 10% ($1,000 divided by +-$9,600 wagered)

    WHAT DO THE STATS SHOW:
    You are betting 50% more
    BUT are making 35% less.

    Your strike-rate for 5* is steady. Infact, this season’s profit comes completely from 5* (at a glance).

    Your daily strike-rate can’t be offering an ROI and is not an indicator on how good you could be if you were more selective.

    You would probably see more of a return if you had two “3 point” plays a week instead of the number of daily bets you put down.

    Show my stats to anyone handicapper or even a mathmetician.

    Their advice will be to BE MORE SELECTIVE and you will see a decent ROI (Last season, 18% – $ (the 10%+ you are showing ($1000 divided by $10,000 wagered to date).

    And when gambling, it is easy to say that you are up or “already made 9 pts” but any investor/gambler/handicapper needs to step back and look at the facts and cut the day-to-day risk.

    Myself, not one bet will be placed on the Stanley Cup. Why? My returns on games involving both teams (betting for/against or totals) had an ROI of 20% losses for the season (8 bets, 3 jersey, 5 on kings). Translated, I feel I can’t read the teams so why bother.

  4. It is funny how that other gut who comments all the time, says the complete opposite. Obviously there is no one who is really right or wrong. Now, Kevins has had a tough NHL season, but that just shows how difficult betting can be. Give Kevin some credit for his work, and let him do his job as he has showed how he can profit. In fact, there is no doubt that you criticism of his MLB picks are totally wrong!

  5. Duncan MacTavish on

    Matt, I’ve only posted a handful of times this season. I posted pre-match one time since I had a read on the game that was pretty solid and had some views that contradicted Kevin’s read.

    Earlier this year, I emailed Kevin on some points and handed him some ‘tools’ I use from three decades of betting (hockey, NFL, horses UK and South Africa, and European Soccer). But watching him through the year, he continued to bet on games involving teams where he wasn’t profiting (not just betting on but against or on the totals). Infact, if he has kept records, it becomes very apparent and would have been apparent in about the end of November.

    His selections for baseball are going down the same road.

    As well, unless you have your math down on this game. Gamblers become spin doctors to make things look better than they are. The math is much more in depth than the bet. Learning that math can be an incredible tool. It doesn’t make you thousands. Knowing the math SAVES you thousands.

    MATT’S QUOTE: “In fact, there is no doubt that you criticism of his MLB picks are totally wrong!”

    I simply laid out the stats/facts/bottom-line. I stated the obvious – his 5* seems to be offering a return / his daily’s aren’t.

    Did I miss something?

    So, in interest of open discussion, where am I wrong?

  6. I see your points on his MLB picks. But I think, that Kevin has showed a lot of times that he his not trying to force any picks. One or two picks on a MLB board with often around 15 games is not a lot. Many other handicappers have three or four picks a day. Kevin is selective, and you can see that in his write ups. He has descent arguments for his picks. Kevin knows that his 2 unit picks need to get better, but everybody can improve, right? But there is no doubt that his 5 unit picks are excellent picks, and that is what the clients are paying for, and these picks are making the profits.
    Besides the other guy I referred to, who comments a lot, is not you.