NHL Picks for April 4th

4

Well that sums up the Maple Leafs season last night.  We found some value on them at +195 against the Sabres, and despite holding leads of 3-0 and 5-3 the Leafs manage to lose 6-5 in overtime.  That was the difference between a winning night and losing night for us last night.  We also had the Blue Jackets at +198, and we saw them outshoot Phoenix 54-22 and take the 2-0 loss.  Yes Mike Smith stopped all 54 shots for the shutout.

Tonight’s plays below…

Detroit Red Wings @ St Louis Blues – UNDER 5 GOALS (+100)
(Note: I’m risking 1 unit to win 1 unit)

The Detroit Red Wings came from behind against the Panthers on Sunday for a 2-1 shootout win to break their 2 game losing skid.  The Red Wings have scored 2 goals or less in 8 of their last games (in which they’ve only won 3 games).  The Red Wings are just 16-21-3 on the road, where they average just 2.38 goals per game.  Jimmy Howard is in net and is coming off that 2-1 shootout win where he stopped 27 of 28 shots against.  He is 34-16-3 on the season with a 2.14 GAA and .920 SV%.   This game will feature two of the league’s top goalies as the Blue have Brian Elliot in net.  Elliot has recorded 3 straight shutouts giving him an impressive 9 on the season.  Elliot is 23-9-3 on the year with a 1.48 GAA and .943 SV% – just amazing numbers nearing the end of the regular season.  The Blues are a stellar 30-5-4 on home ice and are allowing just 1.62 goals against when playing at home.  These two teams have met 5 times this season and tonight marks the final meeting.  The UNDER is 5-0 in their meetings, although that includes two totals of 5 when the line was set at 5.5.  The oddsmakers have adjusted the total to 5 when these two teams last met but it still resulted in an UNDER with a 3-1 final score in Detroit.  The UNDER is 16-4-1 in the Red Wings last 21 games vs divisional opponents, and 21-7-2 in their last 30 vs a team with a winning record.  Also note that the UNDER is 38-15-15 in the Blues last 68 overall, and 14-6-2 vs divisional opponents.  We have what should be a low scoring game with two of the NHL’s best goalies in net – take the UNDER at a generous price.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens – LIGHTNING TO SCORE OVER 2.5 GOALS (-135)
(Note: I’m risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit)

**This type of bet is available at US friendly 5Dimes amongst others** 

This game doesn’t mean much for either team, but the Tampa Bay Lightning have still been playing like they are in the hunt for the postseason.  The Lightning have won 5 of their last 7 games and Steven Stamkos continues to light it up (58 goals and 37 assists).  The Lightning have scored 3+ more goals in 7 of their last 8 games (4, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 3, and 3).  On the flip side the Canadiens have allowed 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. On the season the Lightning are averaging 2.84 goals per game, while the Canadiens are giving up 2.66 against.  Tonight’s starting goalie for Montreal is Peter Budaj who is 3-7-4 on the season with a 2.82 GAA and .907 SV%.  The Canadiens have  consistently been allowing a lot of shots against and it will be tough for Budaj to slow down a high powered Lightning offense.   Note that the OVER is 38-18 in the Lightning’s last 58 overall and 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Look for Tampa Bay to continue with their high scoring games tonight.  I like the value on the OVER 2.5 goals for Tampa Bay.

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4 Comments

  1. Any thoughts on who is going to win in the Detroit at St.Louis game?

    I took a parlay with St. Louis to win money line and over 5.5 goals in Tampa bay at Montreal game

  2. I have one play going for today and it is:

    Lightning to Win (-110)

    Good Luck all

    @John – I’ll take Blues to Win.

  3. we got fucked on these 2. the lightning had those 3 goals, but they were making all the wrong moves. never enough to win the game, but definitely to get 3. it happens. and the detroit game was a total moose as well. i thought it was actually gonna get tied 3-3 for a loss, but at least we get a push.
    lets get em tomorrow boys, playoff hockey coming up. i cant wait!
    First time poster, long time follower. youll see more of me now that the real hockey has begun!

    cheers