Warning: I’m in my roughest losing streak I’ve ever been in. Stick to the bankroll management rules (1 unit = 1% of your bankroll). Looking to get hot and turn it around into a winning streak…
Phoenix Coyotes @ Toronto Maple Leafs – OVER 5.5 GOALS (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit)
The Phoenix Coyotes come into tonight’s game with a 8-4-3 season on the record, and an impressive 4-1-1 road record. The Maple Leafs have fallen off after a great start, and now sit 10-6-1, with a 5-3-1 home record. The Leafs lost their number one goalie, and have fallen apart as a team. Tonight Ben Scrivens will make another start for the Leafs. He is 2-2 with a 3.21 GAA and .893 SV% this season. Mike Smith is 7-2-3 with a 2.22 GAA and .931 SV% this season. The Coyotes have dominated the Leafs recently in their rare meetings, beating them in 5 straight meetings heading back to 2006. Total scores of those games have been 7, 6, 9, 9, and 6. The Leafs have los three of four games, and were lucky to get their win in St Louis as they were outshot 40-22 in a shootout victory. The Leafs have been brutal killing penalties without Reimer in net, and have a leagues worst PK% at 72.3%. The Leafs are averaging 3.41 goals against per game, and 4 goals against per game in their last 5 games. Both the Coyotes and Leafs are averaging 2.9 goals per game this season. The Coyotes get a rare chance to play in Toronto and I think they come out hard and fast after 2 days of rest coming after a 3-0 road win in San Jose Saturday. Note that the OVER is 10-3 in Maple Leaf’s last 13 overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 home games. Take the OVER.
Colorado Avalanche @ Pittsburgh Penguins – OVER 5.5 GOALS (+103)
(Note: I’m risking 1 unit to win 1.03 units)
The Colorado Avalanche are a different team on the road – a much better team. The Avs are 6-2-1 on the road, but just 2-6 at home. Pittsburgh comes into tonight with a 10-4-3 record, and a 5-1-1 home record. The Avalanche are scoring 2.7 goals per game this season, but that number is up to 3.56 goals per game on the road. While scoring a lot on the road the Avs don’t play tight defense, allowing an average of 3.33 goals against per game away from home. On the season the Avalanche are giving up 3.18 goals per game. Colorado has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games, as they are scoring 3.20 goals per game and giving up 4.20 goals against per game over that span. Semyon Varlamov is struggling with a 5-7-1 record, 3.08 GAA, and .897 SV%. Pittsburgh can credit a lot of their success to Marc-Andre Fleury who has been off to a great start to the season. He is 9-2-1 with a 1.87 GAA and .932 SV%. Although Pittsburgh has been playing to the UNDER for the most part at home, they have opened this up a bit over their last 5 games where they have averaging 2.80 goals per game and 3 goals against per game. During that span the Penguins have averaged over 35 shots per game (the Avs have averaged over 37 shots per game in their last 5). Note that the OVER is 7-3 in the Avs last 10 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 19-6-1 in their last 26 road games vs a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 6-2-2 in the Penguins last 10 vs Western Conference opponents, and 8-3-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a losing record. Both teams have above average powerplays and overall high powered offenses. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game open up and I look for a high scoring game. We have value on the OVER getting plus money. Take the OVER in this one as well.