NHL Picks for November 17th

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My horror start to the season got worst last night, as the Canucks get dumped again when I back them – this time at home.

I’ve had a few emails about bankroll management so let me explain it real quick again for those that don’t understand.  Your bankroll is the amount of money you have for the season that you can “afford to lose”.  For some it might be $100, or $1000, or $100,000.  When I refer to a unit that is equal to 1% of your total bankroll.  So if your bankroll is $1,000, 1% = $10.

It may not be the most exciting for you to be betting only 1% of your bankroll, but keeping your bets small will give you the best chance to make money over the long run.

My free plays are usually 1 Star picks, but I am on such a horrible run right now that I am switching them up to 0.5% or 0.5 units.  I am releasing a few more plays today, as lately I have had some “leans” that hit, but I don’t bet them.  I’m going to lower the wager and bet all my plays…. like always feel free to not bet any of them if you aren’t comfortable.

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild – WILD TO WIN (-125)

(Note: I’m risking 0.63 units to win 0.50 units)

The Avalanche have dropped 8 of their last 10 games, while Minnesota has won 7 of their last 9 games.  After a great start to the season on the road Colorado has now lost 4 straight road games coming into tonight.  Minnesota is 5-2-1 at home this season, and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Colorado turns to it’s backup JS Giguere in hopes of a win tonight.  Giguere is 3-1 with a 2.18 GAA and .920 SV%.  The Wild haven’t confirmed their starting goalie for tonight, but both Backstrom and Harding have excellent numbers at a 2.13 GAA and 1.78 GAA respectively.   Minnesota has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams, and 6 of 8 against the Avalanche at home.  Note that the Wild are coming home after a road trip, but are 11-4 in their last 15 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  These two teams are heading in different directions right now, and I like the Wild to win.

Phoenix Coyotes @ Philadelphia Flyers – COYOTES TO WIN (+160)

(Note: I’m risking 0.5 units to win 0.8 units)

The Coyotes have won 5 straight road games, putting them an impressive 5-1-1 on the road this season.  Overall Phoenix is 9-4-3.  The Flyers have won 5 of their last 7 games and are 10-4-3 on the year. The storyline in this game is Ilya Bryzgalov facing his former team for the first time since signing with Philadelphia in the off season.  Ilya has had a rough start to the year with a 7-4-2 record, 2.78 GAA and .899 SV%.  On the other side of things Mike Smith has enjoyed the starting role for the Coyotes, going 8-2-3 with a 2.19 GAA and .933 SV%.  He hasn’t lost in regulation in his last 9 starts going 7-0-2.  Note that the Coyotes are 7-2 in their last 9 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 6-2 in their last 8 overall.  The Flyers are just 3-7 in their last 10 home as a big home favorite between -151 and -200, and are also just 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.  Phoenix has taken 4 of these two teams last 5 meetings, and I see no reason why they can’t win tonight.  Take Phoenix as a nice size underdog tonight.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins – BRUINS -1.5 [Puck Line] (+130)

(Note: I’m risking 0.5 units to win 0.65 units)

*Update: Curtis Sanford will get the start tonight for Columbus.  He hasn’t made an NHL start since the 08-09 season.  Tough place to make his first start in that long against a hot team… I still like the play*

The Blue Jackets enter tonight with a NHL’s worst 3-13-1 record, and have yet to win a game on the road (0-7).  The Bruins are 9-7 on the year and 7-5 at home.  After a bit of a slow start the Bruins have won 6 straight games, scoring 34 goals over those 6 games (5.66 per game).  The Blue Jackets are giving up 3.71 goals against per game, and 5 goals against per game on the road.  The Blue Jackets got a bit of spark from the return of Jeff Carter in their last game outshooting the Wild 45-23, but still lost 4-2.  Steve Mason has a 3.63 GAA and .875 SV%.  Take note that on the Bruins 6 game winning streak they have won by 2 or more goals in 5 of the 6 games.  I see no reason that the Bruins don’t continue their scoring on maybe the leagues worst goaltender right now, and the Bruins shouldn’t have much problems controlling the Blue Jackets offense.  Take Boston to win by 2 or more tonight with generous odds.

Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders – CANADIENS TO WIN (+104)

(Note: I’m risking 0.5 units to win 0.52 units)

Montreal comes off a 4-0 win against Carolina last night, improving them to 8-7-3 on the season.  They are 5-3 on the road.  The Islanders have gone through a lot of struggles, and are just 4-8-3 on the season (4-4-1 at home).  The Islanders have won just once in their last 11 games.  Montreal is 7-3 in their last 10 games, and 4-1 in their last 5 road games.  In net for the Canadiens will be Peter Budaj who is 1-1 on the season with a 1.48 GAA and .947 SV%.  Budaj has already led the Canadiens to a big underdog win in Nashville on November 12th.  Evgeni Nabokov looks for his second win of the season as he is just 1-5 on the year with a 2.89 GAA and .910 SV%.  Take note that the Canadiens are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in New York, and 12-5 in their lat 17 meetings overall.  Montreal has been the much better team lately, and are only getting the underdog price because of Budaj in net who has been solid in his two starts.  I’m on Montreal tonight.

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9 Comments

  1. I’m with you on the Bruins to win by 2 or more as well as Phoenix to get a W on the road against the Flyers. Things are gonna take a turn for the better, it might as well start tonight.

  2. When spreading betting isn’t it best to go with either 3 picks or 5 so that you can be profitable on the splits 3-2 or 2-1

  3. Well looks like the ny jets did not cover,However Bruins, Wild. Coyotes did. And those unpredictable Habs that’s another story.