NHL Picks for October 24th

5

One play in the NHL today with 3 games on the board…

New York Rangers @ Winnipeg Jets – UNDER 5.5 GOALS (-124)

(Note: I’m risking 1.24 units to win 1 unit)

The Rangers are in Winnipeg to finish off their 7 game road trip to start the season.  The Rangers haven’t had much success on the trip, going 2-2-2 and are averaging just 2 goals per game with just 12 on the season.  Winnipeg has started to see some success, winning 2 of their last 4 games and getting a point in one of those loses. The Jets are still only averaging 2.3 goals per game this year though.  Both teams are struggling on the powerplay, with the Rangers only converting 4.3% of their opportunities, while the Jets are a little more respectable at 12.9%.   Two backups will be in net tonight, but I don’t think that makes a difference here for the UNDER.  Martin Biron was 8-6 last season and had a 2.13 GAA and .923 SV%.  Chris Mason has actually been the better of the two Winnipeg goalies, with a 2.67 GAA and .906 SV%.  After coming in on Saturday and getting the victory Mason can potentially get the coaching staff on his side with a big performance tonight.  The Rangers have had only one game go over 5.5 goals this season, with the following totals in games played this season: 2, 5, 4, 6, 3, and 5.  Also note that the Rangers have been held to les than 20 shots in three of their six games to start the season.  Atlanta has held opponents to 22, 29, and 24 shots against when playing at home.  Note that the UNDER is 34-14-4 in the Rangers last 51 road games, and 20-6-4 in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the Jets last 13 games as an underdog, and 12-4-1 in their last 17 games as a home underdog.  The UNDER is also 10-4 in these two teams last 14 meetings.  The Rangers are at the end of a long road trip, which included 2 games played in Europe, and I’m not sure they will have much in the gas tank for tonight’s game.  We have Biron in season debut, who wants to continue from his success last season, and Mason who wants to win the number 1 spot in between the pipes for Winnipeg.  There is value here on the UNDER.

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5 Comments

  1. Looks like a solid pick Kev…

    Might tail you on it… I’m also leaning Winnipeg and I already bet on the home teams grand salami bet at -.5, as I can see all three home teams winning tonight…

  2. For baseball what is working is reversal theory both for games and totals.

    Take the team that lost the last game to win the next one.

    If last game was over like game 3 then bet under in game 4. For game 4 the under made even more sense cause often when teams score a lot of runs over 12 is my rule then the next game is often an under.

    Looking at the pitching match-ups for tonights game 5 you got Lewis for Texas who after a great regular season has been awful so far in the play-offs. Hey of course he can turn it around but its not the most likely scenario.

    Now on the other side you got Carpenter who has been ranging from lights out to consistent and is undefeated in play-offs 4-0 with a play-off whip of about 1.14.

    Lewis is 1-3 in play-offs with a play-off whip of about 1.88.

    But if the match-up favors St louis then why is Texas favored to win. Again I think part of the answer is reversal theory. Books are expecting that Lewis will revert to being a better pitcher and that Carpenter may be due for a bad outing, especially since this is the 2nd time Texas bats are getting ot see the new Carpenter. Yet books are not sold enuf on this scenario, thus the middling line.

    My guess is that the best bet toinght is the over. Its unlikely that both pitchers will be on. Either Wilson keeps to his bad play-off form or Texas second time through get to Carpenter.

    Also will be putting a small play on Cards to win tonight

    Like over in NFL and avoiding the lopsided Ravens bandwagon. That concensus in covers is extreme and it just scares me to see the public so invested in a bet cause history shows us that whne it looks to easy its ussual isn’t

    GLTA

  3. Strike-from-Finland on

    Hi,

    Tips from Finland, how do I compete? Hopefully well for my sake 🙂

    Jets-Rangers 2 (ML)
    Flyers – TML 1 (ML) and no ML
    MC – Panthers 2 (ML)

  4. Philly – Toronto Over 5.5 (Very confident ! ) put big money on
    Montreal-Florida Over 5.5
    Winnipeg-Rangers Under5.5

  5. Good pick tonight !! I follow you on this one ! Thanks !!
    Just lose a 7 team-teaser tonight
    just need baltimore to win by 3 …
    They were 10.5 favorite and put 7 points on the board 😛